There Are Economic Warning Signs for Trump in the Midwest - The New York Times

Jobs during Trump’s tenure

Percentage change in total employment,

Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019

Midwestern

swing states

Jobs during Trump’s tenure

Percentage change in total employment,

Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019

Midwestern

swing states

Jobs during Trump’s tenure

Percentage change in total employment,

Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019

Midwestern

swing states

The American economy has found its footing after a summer recession scare. But much of the Midwest is still stumbling.

President Trump campaigned in 2016 on a pledge to restore jobs — manufacturing jobs, specifically — to long-struggling Midwestern communities, and he has made the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign.

But job growth has slowed sharply this year in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states that were critical to Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as in states like Minnesota that he narrowly lost. Hiring in the region has remained sluggish even as it has picked up this fall in much of the rest of the country. Other economic measures show similar weakness.

Job growth has been slow in key states.

Jobs during Trump’s tenure

The Midwestern

swing states are

in the low end.

Jobs during Trump’s tenure

The Midwestern

swing states are

in the low end.

Jobs during

Trump’s tenure

The Midwestern

swing states are

in the low end.

Percentage change in total employment, Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019.

The states are struggling in part because they depend heavily on manufacturing and agriculture, two sectors that have been hit especially hard by Mr. Trump’s trade war. Tariffs have driven up prices for imported parts and materials, and pushed down demand for American goods abroad.

“Apart from agriculture and manufacturing, everything’s going OK,” said Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha who publishes an economic index that tracks nine states from Minnesota to Arkansas. “Well, in this part of the country that’s not comforting. Those are the two industries we depend on.”

Manufacturing job growth has been declining nationwide . . .

Manufacturing jobs

Trump’s tenure

as president

Manufacturing jobs

Trump’s tenure as president

Year-over-year change in total U.S. manufacturing employment.

An unexpected surge in manufacturing jobs early in Mr. Trump’s term was never as pronounced in the Midwest as elsewhere in the country. Now, those states are struggling as the boom has faded. State-level data through October shows a steep drop in factory employment in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and other states. Other data paints a somewhat rosier picture, but there is no question that growth has slowed.

“We do believe that manufacturing is in a recession,” said Sarah Crane, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “That is almost always going to have a disproportionately large impact on the Midwest.”

. . . and is particularly weak in Midwestern swing states.

Manufacturing jobs during Trump’s tenure

The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.

Manufacturing jobs during Trump’s tenure

The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.

Manufacturing jobs

during Trump’s tenure

Tesla opened a large plant in low-manufacturing Nevada in 2016.

The Midwestern swing states are a bit more clustered towards the low end.

Percentage change in manufacturing employment, Dec. 2016 to Oct. 2019.

Still, compared with the crisis of the Great Recession — or even the years of more gradual industrial decline that preceded it — the economy in the Midwest remains on relatively solid footing. The unemployment rate is hovering around 4 percent in much of the region and is even lower in some states. Almost every Midwestern state has added jobs in the past year with the exception of Michigan, where the strike at General Motors temporarily knocked some 17,000 workers off payrolls in October. (November data, which should reflect the end of the strike, will be released later this month.)

It isn’t clear how voters will respond to what has been, so far, a mild economic slowdown. Early polls show Mr. Trump leading in the Midwest against several of his prospective Democratic opponents, and his approval ratings have remained largely steady. Patrick Anderson, an economist in East Lansing, Mich., who has studied how the economy affects elections, said he doubted that voters would view the slowdown as a crisis.

“Many of these voters are resistant to the notion that this is a bad time because they have lived through a very bad time,” Mr. Anderson said.

Manufacturing has particularly struggled in counties critical to Mr. Trump’s victory.

Manufacturing jobs in the last year

Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.

Macomb

Co., Mich.

Racine

Co., Wis.

Erie Co.,

Ohio

Manufacturing jobs in the last year

Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.

Macomb

Co., Mich.

Erie Co.,

Ohio

Racine

Co., Wis.

PENNSYLVANIA

Manufacturing jobs in the last year

Outlined counties are those that flipped to voting for Trump from voting for Obama. Most of them have lost manufacturing jobs in the last year.

Macomb

Co., Mich.

Erie Co.,

Ohio

Racine

Co., Wis.

PENNSYLVANIA

Percentage change in manufacturing employment, 2d qtr. 2018 to 2d qtr. 2019.·Counties with incomplete data were not included in the analysis.

There is some evidence, however, that the economy is suffering more in places that are particularly important for Mr. Trump’s re-election chances. Job growth has been markedly weaker in Midwestern counties that went from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to voting for Mr. Trump in 2016 than in the rest of the Midwest or the country as a whole. Manufacturing employment in those counties fell outright in the year ending in June, the most recent data available.

Macomb County, Mich., for example, voted twice for Mr. Obama, but favored Mr. Trump by 48,000 votes — more than his margin in the state as a whole. The county, a suburb of Detroit, fared well economically during the first year and a half of Mr. Trump’s term, adding 7,400 jobs, including 5,600 in manufacturing — making it one of the fastest-growing counties in the country in terms of factory employment.

Since then, however, Macomb’s fortunes have reversed. The county lost nearly 1,400 manufacturing jobs in the 12 months that ended in June and overall job growth had slowed to a crawl. Other counties that swung to Mr. Trump, like Racine County, Wis., and Erie County, Ohio, have seen similar reversals.

The slowdown in those counties may be spreading beyond manufacturing.

Change in jobs in the last year in:

Swing counties in the

Midwest swing states

Other counties in the

Midwest swing states

All other

states

Transportation

and warehousing

Natural resources

and mining

Manufacturing

Construction

Change in jobs

in the last year in:

Swing counties

Other counties

All other

states

in the Midwest

swing states

in the Midwest

swing states

Transportation

and

warehousing

Natural

resources

and mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Percentage change in employment in each industry, 2d qtr. 2018 to 2d qtr. 2019.

Hiring in the Obama-Trump counties has also been weaker in the transportation and warehousing industry — a possible sign that the effects of the trade war have begun to filter through to the rest of the economy.

“It’s spreading beyond manufacturing to industries that move, ship and store goods,” Ms. Crane said.

The United States and China on Friday announced they had reached an agreement to reduce tariffs in what Mr. Trump described as a “phase one deal” between the countries. Few details were available, and past thaws in trade hostilities have proved short-lived. But even if the deal holds, it will take time for the economic damage done by the tariffs to reverse. Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University in Indiana, said that job losses were likely to worsen in the coming months and that it was unlikely that the Midwest could fully recover before the height of the election season next fall.

“By September or October of next year, if you’re campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, western Pennsylvania or Indiana, you can point clearly to the trade war as a cause of growing economic malaise in those states,” Mr. Hicks said.

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