If President Donald Trump prevails at the polls in November and achieves a second-term presidency, he could throw the economy into disarray with an assault on the Federal Reserve as he seeks to remake the central bank in his own image — and compliant to his whims.
“If Trump wins the election, he’ll believe he has a mandate to fire [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell,” said Mitchell Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy.
Trump has threatened to dismiss Powell — whom he tapped in 2017 to head the Fed — but the Chairman has responded by saying he believes that he cannot be fired without cause, and that he will not resign. Firing or demoting Powell would be legally fraught, and some suggest Trump might not want to risk losing an almost inevitable court fight if he did try to fire Powell before his term as chairman is up in 2022.
“It would be very unpopular and difficult to fight in the courts, firing Powell. I think he would lean towards letting him finish out his term and pushing forward someone he has designated on the board to run it, with the hopes that he, as president, would have more influence on Fed policy going forward,” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence.
Some suggest that Trump loyalist Judy Shelton could be a chairman-in-waiting. A former campaign adviser and outspoken Fed critic, Shelton is scheduled to meet with the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
Shelton has stirred concern by questioning the need for the Fed’s independence, a stance that would align her with Trump but put her at odds with mainstream economists.
Let our news meet your inbox. The news and stories that matters, delivered weekday mornings.
“It is encouraging to see that some members of the Senate are voicing skepticism about Judy Shelton,” said Kenneth Kuttner, an economics professor at Williams College. “That’s slightly reassuring.”
Kuttner characterized central bank independence as a critical firewall that lets policymakers forces on economic rather than political goals. “The Fed is the one bright spot… thank goodness. It’s structurally very independent,” he said.
The policymaking Federal Reserve Board of Governors is a seven-member body, two seats of which are currently vacant. During his tenure as president, Trump has appointed four of the current five members, including Powell. Two additional seats remain vacant. Kuttner pointed to previous attempts by Trump to install loyalists with little background in economics or monetary policy; nominees Stephen Moore and Herman Cain both withdrew their names from consideration once Senate approval looked unlikely. “I think the problem goes beyond just the rift with Powell,” he said.
Trump’s goal for a more compliant Fed is both clear and very, very risky, experts say, given the president’s often-stated desire for interest rates at — or even below — zero.
“I think that Trump’s dream would be to get somebody to impose negative interest rates in this country,” DiMartino Booth said, calling such a move a “step into the abyss.”
Negative interest rates in Japan and some Eurozone countries have contributed to economic stagnation, and left policymakers with no clear path for a return to normalizing. “Where we’ve seen negative interest rates before, I can’t point to one example where it’s actually worked,” said Mitchell Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy.
"Trump’s dream would be to get somebody to impose negative interest rates in this country,” said one analyst. Yet, negative interest rates abroad have contributed to economic stagnation.
“For one thing, it would absolutely hurt all kinds of lending — business lending consumer lending. Banks need to make money by making loans, and if there’s no access to credit, companies can’t borrow today for the future,” Goldberg said.
Negative interest rates also are terrible for ordinary citizens, said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics.
“I think negative interest rates are just about the worst things we could do for economic inequality, because they destroy savings, threaten retirements and evaporate pensions,” Petrou said. “And, if the economy is in a recession, which is blighting what Trump thinks of as his legacy, I think the results are far less predictable."
“People will act based on what’s in their best interest now, not in the long-term best interest of the U.S. economy,” Goldberg said.
“It could take a few years for poor policy decisions to be felt, but once they are felt, they could last for years, and then it's even harder to get things back on track," he said.
Business - Latest - Google News
February 12, 2020 at 04:15AM
https://ift.tt/2Sk0t2l
What happens to Fed Chair Jerome Powell if Trump gets re-elected? - NBCNews.com
Business - Latest - Google News
https://ift.tt/2Rx7A4Y
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "What happens to Fed Chair Jerome Powell if Trump gets re-elected? - NBCNews.com"
Post a Comment